in would argue that mash -- michigan and nevada should be leaning obama before last week. we have a very close election. and it is going to be decided on election night with -- with a bunch of potential surprises. >> chris: you have a white board. >> think about this. on the third of november, 2008, president obamma was at or above 50% in 7 of the 13 states that year. in those same state this is year, on same date, 4 years later, he is 50%, not above, but 50% in just two, wisconsin and nev dismef and wisconsin, he is only at 50% because there is 1 pole, an outliwer an 8-point lead. we have gone from cruise into victory in 2008, to a tight, tight, tight race in 2012. >> chris: lanlast question. what do you make of romney going to pennsylvania today? what do you make of obama with last-minute ad buys in florida and virginia? who's got in wind at the back? who is serious? hois bluffing? >> they are all serious and they are not bluffing. president obama has difficulty in florida and virginia two, states where the real clear politics average goes to romney. and pennsylvania has